000 AXNT20 KNHC 311126 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... MID ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N36W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 9N37W MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IS MOVING WSW 5-10 KT ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP MOISTURE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 37W-42W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N67W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 16N69W TO 12N67W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 66W-70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 15N TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 61W-70W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N85W IN THE W CARIBBEAN TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO BEYOND 14N87W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE WEAKER SURGE OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 84W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N15W EXTENDING ALONG 12N23W TO THE 1010 MB LOW NEAR 9N37W. THE ITCZ STARTS W OF THE LOW NEAR 9N39W CONTINUING ALONG 8N48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 42W-47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 20W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 9N-14N AND WITHIN 75 NM S AND 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 45W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF N OF 25N AND THE SW GULF W OF 90W ANCHORED OVER NE TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N83W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N E OF 86W TO THE FLORIDA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-95W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA WITH A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 24N91W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER SLIGHTLY THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N83W COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 77W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N BETWEEN 80W-84W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO NEAR 18N83W PROVING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 75W. THE ACTIVITY OVER NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE IN W CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W OUT OF THE BASIN BY EARLY WED. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO NE FLORIDA GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 27N78W 30N78W TO BEYOND 32N77W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N68W TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO/NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N83W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 68W-74W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 15N35W THEN EXTENDING AN AXIS W ALONG 15N53W THEN NW TO 24N65W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE ATLC WATERS FROM 14N-24N BETWEEN 58W-69W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC TO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N24W ALONG 30N34W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N43W TO 22N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N46W TO 27N50W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 40W-44W AND FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 49W-58W. OTHERWISE A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC SUPPORTING A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N62W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE S WED THEN CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE WEST S OF 22N THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW