000 AXNT20 KNHC 301747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N35W TO 10N36W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 34W-38W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N60W TO 10N63W OVER THE E CARIBBEAN MOVING W AT 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 59W-64W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N80W TO 10N82W OVER THE W CARIBBEAN S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AT 25 KT. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 82W-86W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N16W TO 10N20W TO 10N30W TO AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB TROPICAL LOW AT 9N36W TO 8N42W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N42W TO 6N53W TO 10N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 14W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 24W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 34W-38W IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 38W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N92W. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AROUND THE HIGH ARE MOSTLY A SLIGHT BREEZE AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 33N82W 29N85W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 81W-87W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR VERACRUZ AND TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 93W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 23N100W ENHANCING THE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N81W. EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OVER GEORGIA AND N FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS. ADDITIONAL PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL REACH THE NE GULF. ALSO EXPECT RAIN AND SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A MONSOON TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA TO COSTA RICA TO THE E PACIFIC ALONG 8N76W 8N80W 10N86W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS THUS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 75W-83W. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE JUST N OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOSTLY DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS W OF A LINE FROM N COLOMBIA TO BELIZE. MORE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SMALL 1023 MB HIGH IS ENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N58W. A SMALL 1018 MB LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 31N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 45W-51W. ANOTHER 1023 MN HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N35W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC AT 34N24W...27N41W...27N69W. AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 67W-71W...AND FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 48W-51W. EXAMINING GOES-R PROVING GROUND DUST IMAGERY...THE ATLANTIC HAS THICK SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST LOCATED FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN E OF 50W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT CONVECTION N OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO... AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA