000 AXNT20 KNHC 291748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N52W TO 8N56W E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING W AT 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 53W-59W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N69W TO 10N71W OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE IS OF LESSER AMPLITUDE AND IS WEAKER THAN THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO N VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N16W TO AN EMBEDDED TROPICAL LOW AT 10N30W TO 10N38W TO 12N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N43W TO 15N54W TO 12N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 14W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL LOW FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 29W-37W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 53W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE MOSTLY A SLIGHT BREEZE AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 32N82W 29N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 93W-95W. ALSO SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 94W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 24N97W ENHANCING THE RAIN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF TO REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT RAIN AND SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF HISPANIOLA. SEE ABOVE. A 1006 MB LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND E PANAMA...FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 74W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 80W-85W. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE JUST N OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND BELIZE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 80W-89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS W OF A LINE FROM N COLOMBIA TO BELIZE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ...AND THE W CARIBBEAN...DUE TO TROPICAL WAVES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SMALL 1020 MB HIGH IS ENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N71W. ANOTHER 1023 MN HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N53W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC AT 36N19W...31N23W...28N42W...26N65W...AND 24N79W. AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 43W-48W...AND FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 65W-68W. EXAMINING GOES-R PROVING GROUND DUST IMAGERY...THE ATLANTIC HAS THICK SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST LOCATED FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN E OF 50W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A 1018 MB LOW TO FORM IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N47W WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA