000 AXNT20 KNHC 290603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N48W 16N49W 11N50W. THE WAVE SHOWS UP REALLY WELL IN THE CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W FROM 11N TO 17N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS NEAR 67W/68W AROUND 28/2015 UTC MOVED TOWARD 14N70W AND DISSIPATED WITH TIME. SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB HINT AT THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 11N25W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N31W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 10N31W TO 9N36W 12N45W AND 11N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 33W AND 34W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N106W... ABOUT 120 NM TO THE WEST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN MEXICO FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 104W AND 107W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N96W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND TEXAS FROM 19N TO 29N BETWEEN 88W AND 100W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. AN UPPER LEVEL HAS PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...AND THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS/ COASTAL WATERS. EARLIER AREAS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAVE DISSIPATED...LEAVING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA AND TEXAS. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N88W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING AROUND THE HIGH CENTER. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE 23N62W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N70W TO A 24N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N62W CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 24N79W ANDROS ISLAND CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 29N BETWEEN 71W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W...AND FROM 31N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 16N83W 16N75W 13N71W. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA 24 HOURS AGO. IT IS NOT EASY TO SEE A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW STILL REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W FROM 11N TO 17N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS NEAR 67W/68W AROUND 28/2015 UTC MOVED TOWARD 14N70W AND DISSIPATED WITH TIME. SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB HINT AT THE WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 9N81W IN PANAMA...AND BEYOND 10N84W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA... COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COASTAL COSTA RICA...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3 FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 82W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 28N44W TO 26N49W. A SEPARATE SHEAR AXIS CONNECTS THIS TROUGH TO 25N50W...AND EVENTUALLY TO A 23N62W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE 23N62W CENTER TO 25N70W TO A 24N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N62W CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 24N79W ANDROS ISLAND CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 29N BETWEEN 71W AND 86W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N27W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N28W. A SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH CONNECTS THE TROUGH TO A BROAD 25N38W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N50W TO 28N65W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N73W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO THE GULF OF MEXICO 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N88W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ACCOMPANY NOW AND THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IN THE FUTURE THE 20N48W 16N49W 11N50W TROPICAL WAVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT