000 AXNT20 KNHC 271133 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N34W TO 12N35W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 35W-38W. W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N51W TO 15N54W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 22N88W TO 15N90W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W ALONG 12N21W 12N31W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 10N38W TO 11N46W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 10N54W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 26W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 6N16W TO 13N19W...FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 33W-45W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 57W-61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 50W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO COVERING THE W GULF. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER THE E GULF ALONG 21N89W TO APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA. THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS LOST IDENTITY AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ALONG 27N89W TO A 1017 MB HIGH OVER SE LOUISIANA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS OVER THE N GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE GULF AS WELL AS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ATLC RIDGE WILL REBUILDS W ACROSS THE E GULF TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W OF 85W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A PAIR OF UPPER RIDGES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 76W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WESTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WELL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND GEORGIA COAST COVERING THE AREA W OF 60W. A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 27/0900 UTC FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 32N61W ALONG 28N61W 27N64W TO 28N66W PULLING UP STATIONARY TO 31N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 61W-71W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 32N45W ALONG 24N57W S OF THE ABOVE FRONT THROUGH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 25N68W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N FRI THROUGH SUN REACHING ALONG 28N MON AND ALONG 29N TUE. WESTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN ON SUN. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN ON TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW