000 AXNT20 KNHC 260003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A 1011 MB TROPICAL LOW IS ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 12N24W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 25W-28W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N41W TO 12N41W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N81W TO 13N81W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBITS BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 77W-80W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF S MAURITANIA AT 18N17W TO A 1011 MB TROPICAL LOW AT 12N24W TO 10N30W TO 12N38W TO 9N47W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N47W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 15W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL LOW FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 25W-28W. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 30W-35W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 47W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N89W. ONLY 5 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED NEAR THE HIGH. A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA FROM 26N86W TO 31N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 82W-87W. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS REMAIN ELSEWHERE E OF 88W AND N OF 27N. FURTHER W...WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 94W-98W. THIS CONVECTION IS MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 5N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 78W-80W. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER N NICARAGUA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 82W-86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 71W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N65W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 19N BETWEEN 68W-83W HAS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N41W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N55W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 25N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 55W-61W DUE TO SOME SURFACE CONFLUENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. EXAMINING GOES-R PROVING GROUND DUST IMAGERY...A LARGE PORTION OF ATLANTIC HAS SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST LOCATED N OF 17N BETWEEN 15W-35W...AND N OF 10N BETWEEN 35W-80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA