000 AXNT20 KNHC 250545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1010 MB NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 695 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 37N54W. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW. THE LOW IS MOVING NE NEAR 17 KT AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A 1010 MB LOW IS OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 11N20W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 13N20W TO 12N23W. TROPICAL WAVE IS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 21N38W TO 13N42W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS MID ATLC WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 18N72W TO 11N74W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 19N79W TO 12N82W MOVING WNW 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRIER AIR AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR DAKAR SENEGAL THROUGH THE 1010 MB LOW CONTINUING ALONG 12N28W 12N37W TO 9N44W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 22W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF OF MEXICO WEATHER HAS BECOME MORE STABLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE THAT NOW COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR 26N91W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N88W CONTINUING TO THE S TEXAS COAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO 28N85W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF 87W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES ACROSS TEXAS INTO NE MEXICO TO NEAR MEXICO CITY. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS S MEXICO INTO THE SW GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N BETWEEN 92W-97W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS S EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS THEN WILL SHIFT N ACROSS FLORIDA SAT AND SUN. N PORTION OF W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE MOVE W THROUGH BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AND FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TO OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 85W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. THIS IS LEAVING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 15N83W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-80W AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN BETWEEN 17N-19N. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 73W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-71W TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. TROPICAL WAVE IN W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO GULF OF HONDURAS LATE WED AND BE OVER THE YUCATAN THU. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO W CARIBBEAN THU. THE MID ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING THE LOW DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE LEADING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SAME LOW ALONG 32N54W TO 28N59W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N65W TO 29N72W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF 60W TO THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE E/CENTRAL ATLC AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 33N41W ALONG 26N51W THEN W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS JUST N OF 31N WED AND THU. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRI THEN DRIFT N SAT AND SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW