000 AXNT20 KNHC 242330 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1010 MB NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 37N54W IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT GRADUALLY LOSES FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10-12 KNOTS AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION THAT WAS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED. ...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ABOUT 180 NM OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N19W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 19W-25W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N38W TO 12N41W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N70W TO 11N70W IN THE E CARIBBEAN MOVING W AT 15 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 65W-70W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N78W TO 12N79W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE ALSO EXHIBITS BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 77W-80W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 14N17W TO A 1011 MB LOW AT 11N19W TO 12N30W TO 11N40W TO 9N45W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N45W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AT 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 19W-25W. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS W OF 25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N89W. ONLY 5 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED NEAR THE HIGH. A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 31N85W. A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 28N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 85W-87W. FURTHER S... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA FROM 26N-27N. FURTHER W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 90W-96W. THIS CONVECTION IS MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N95W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER COSTA RICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 80W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N82W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE HIGH FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 65W-70W MOVING SE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N55W TO 28N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 55W-57W. ANOTHER 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N42W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXAMINING GOES-R PROVING GROUND DUST IMAGERY...A LARGE PORTION OF ATLANTIC HAS SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST LOCATED N OF 17N BETWEEN 15W-35W...AND N OF 10N BETWEEN 35W-80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA