000 AXNT20 KNHC 241446 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1045 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012 ***** ERN CARIB TRPCL WAVE AXIS LOCATION CORRECTED ***** TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A 1010 MB LOW WAS ADDED TO THE 24/0600 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR THE BORDER OF SENEGAL/GUINEA BISSAU. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 17W-25W. TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 21N34W TO 13N37W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 18N64W TO 11N66W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ALLOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 12N60W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 15N69W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W/75W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRIER AIR AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA THROUGH THE 1010 MB LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE CONTINUING INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 12N20W 13N31W TO 8N43W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 8N53W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N12N BETWEEN 52W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N96W TO NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 23N W OF 90W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF S MEXICO AND THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 24/0900 UTC FROM 18N93W ALONG 19.95W TO 21N97W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR 26N86W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS AT 24/0900 UTC FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 26N87W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 83W-88W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ALONG 26N THROUGH FRI. N PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AND FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 70W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THIS IS LEAVING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 13N80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 20N W OF 85W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER MOST OF CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS W CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THU. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS E CARIBBEAN WED AND THU AND THE W CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND N CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N56W TO NEAR 20N71W SUPPORTING A LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N58W TO 26N65W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE E ATLC AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N39W ALONG 26N58W TO A SECOND 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N70W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SAHARAN DUST COVERING MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN CONTINUING TO BE DIFFUSE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S THROUGH THU AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE US EAST COAST N OF 30N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW/FG