000 AXNT20 KNHC 240004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N32W TO 13N35W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N58W TO 10N63W MOVING W AT 15 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 55W-61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 67W AND S OF 17N. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N73W TO 11N73W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBITS BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO INLAND VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 67W-77W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 10N14W TO 13N30W TO 9N42W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N42W 11N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 10W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL GEORGIA NEAR 33N87W. AS OF 2100 UTC...AN EMBEDDED 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N84W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION GOING AROUND THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER MOST OF INLAND FLORIDA. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 88W-93W. FURTHER W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW GULF FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 90W-94W. THIS CONVECTION IS MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 23N94W. EXPECT THE LOW OVER THE NE GULF TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER E NICARAGUA...E HONDURAS...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 82W-87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N76W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N69W. ANOTHER 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 75W-80W. EXAMINING GOES-R PROVING GROUND DUST IMAGERY...A LARGE PORTION OF ATLANTIC HAS SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST LOCATED N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W...AND N OF 15N W OF 20W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA