000 AXNT20 KNHC 220553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N22W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 13N25W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE LOW CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N62W TO 10N62W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 12N60W TO 19N65W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE S GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N90W TO EL SALVADOR MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/W CUBA TO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N15W THROUGH THE 1012 MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 13N25W CONTINUING ALONG 11N29W 11N37W TO 10N40W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N47W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 12N24W TO 7N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 50W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE NW GULF ANCHORED INLAND OVER S TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/W CUBA NEAR 22N85W COVERING THE E GULF AND EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS WSW TO S MEXICO AND COVERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 85W TO OVER S FLORIDA...CUBA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE S GULF S OF A LINE FROM 25N86W TO TAMPICO MEXICO INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 24N95W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL WILL DRIFT N THROUGH MON. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH WITH TWO EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N70W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 15N74W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/W CUBA NEAR 22N85W. THIS IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN W TO NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE E CARIBBEAN SE FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS COSTA RICA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-12N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLC COVERS THE GREATER ANTILLES PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-85W INCLUDING CUBA AND HISPANIOLA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE W ENTERING THE W CARIBBEAN LATER IN THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/W CUBA ALONG ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE TO 32N76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N W OF 77W INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 23N65W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SW OF A LINE FROM THE N COAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 66W ALONG 21N70W TO 25N76W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W TO A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N63W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SAHARAN DUST COVERING MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN REACHING THE FLORIDA E COAST. SURFACE RIDGE WILL WILL DRIFT N THROUGH MON THEN BECOME STATIONARY ONCE AGAIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW