000 AXNT20 KNHC 190601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W FROM 12N TO 19N. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N60W 15N59W 12N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N62W 15N59W 11N56W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N87W IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...ALONG THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER...INTO WESTERN EL SALVADOR. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N90W IN THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 95W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING BUT LINGERING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 10N36W AND 9N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N46W TO 8N53W AND 6N58W IN NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W... DISORGANIZED AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N81W ALONG THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ARKANSAS TO LOUISIANA. REMNANT STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N87W IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...ALONG THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER...INTO WESTERN EL SALVADOR. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N90W IN THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 95W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING BUT LINGERING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N102W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N100W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS INLAND FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 101W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W FROM 16N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 82W. PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO ONLY THE TROPICAL WAVE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 78W. THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE 21N62W TO 22N78W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. A SEPARATE BUT COMPARATIVELY WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 15N70W 11N76W...TO THE GULF OF URABA IN COASTAL COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN COASTAL PANAMA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN IN A LINE THAT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA TO 9N80W IN NORTHERN COASTAL PANAMA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 64W. EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 12 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES THROUGH 33N56W TO A 29N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N68W...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N72W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 11N76W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 20N50W 8N51W. NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N17W TO 27N21W. NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N30W TO AN 18N32W DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 12N35W. NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 30N52W...29N63W... TO 27N77W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N94W...AND NEAR BAFFIN BAY ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND THE 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 29N BETWEEN 35W AND 70W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT