000 AXNT20 KNHC 161120 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 33N36W TO 26N44W 20N53W TO 18N60W. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N37W 10N39W. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE COMPOSITE TPW IMAGERY...IN LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND IN THE GFS MODEL AT 700 MB AND AT 850 MB. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...TO 14N74W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED TO THIS TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 63W AND 71W FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC POSSIBLY IS MORE RELATED TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAN IT IS JUST TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 11N19W 12N23W 10N32W 9N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N33W TO 7N38W AND 6N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 11N TO THE EAST OF 25W...FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N80W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA...THE GULF OF MEXICO... GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 75W AND 85W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 72W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. AN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N86W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 15N IN HONDURAS BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 92W...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF HONDURAS TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO MEXICO NEAR 24N104W. EARLIER PRECIPITATION IS WEAKENING FROM 22N TO 23N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 97W ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA AND 83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS IS ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PART OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8N TO 10N FROM 11N TO 18N TO THE WEST OF 72W... AND FROM 15N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 72W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 33N36W TO 26N44W 20N53W TO 18N60W. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOME OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH REACHES 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TO 33N53W TO 31N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 52W AND 68W. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 24N26W 12N31W. NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N37W TO 30N46W...26N54W... TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N68W... TO 33N78W OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 47W AND 61W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N 65W AND 74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT