000 AXNT20 KNHC 151031 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N51W TO 10N47W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N67W TO 11N67W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS IN AN BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W ALONG 12N24W TO 7N33W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 6N45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-13N E OF 21W THE COAST OF W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 28W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NARROW UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER E TEXAS AND NE MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 25N W OF 95W INCLUDING THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SW NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO 24N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 28N88W TO INLAND OVER SW MISSISSIPPI/SE LOUISIANA TO 31N90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 90W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA THROUGH AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N84W TO NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E GULF AT 15/0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM 27N86W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/W TIP OF CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N W OF 88W TO INLAND OVER CUBA...S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE REST OF THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TONIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NW GULF MON AND MON NIGHT WHILE DISSIPATING. SURFACE RIDGE NE OF THE AREA WILL SLIDE S TO ALONG 27N DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE S GULF EXTENDS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 75W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/W TIP OF CUBA TO NEAR 20N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 20N TO INLAND OVER W CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL W OF 80W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 80W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. THE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 72W. TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND MON. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE THE E CARIBBEAN EARLY MON TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THEN BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES W ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 31N76W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS AT 15/0900 UTC FROM NEAR 32N74W ALONG 30N77W TO 27N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 23N79W TO 31N73W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W ALONG 35N GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 15N-33N E OF 40W AND FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 40W-66W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NW AND BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS TONIGHT ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO BEGIN TO SLIDE S AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES 29N MON AND MON NIGHT AND TO 28N TUE THROUGH THU WITH A HIGH CENTER DEVELOPING NEAR 28N66W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW