000 AXNT20 KNHC 142334 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N43W TO 16N49W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 45W-55W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N61W TO 19N63W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 60W-65W ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 61W-63W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 10N21W TO 12N32W TO 11N42W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N47W TO 09N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 11W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 23W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION NEAR 29N74W SOUTHWEST TO OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N82W TO OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. CONSIDERABLE BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AND WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL ENERGY AND SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM MOBILE BAY NEAR 31N88W TO 26N89W IN THE CENTRAL GULF. WITH BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 25N E OF 84W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CENTRAL GULF SURFACE TROUGH ARE OCCURRING N OF 23N BETWEEN 86W-92W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FAR WESTERN GULF...A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 27N94W TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER COASTAL EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING W OF 95W ON LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND HIGH OVER MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION NEAR 29N74W SOUTHWESTWARD TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS PRODUCING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N79W TO 19N84W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 75W-85W... INCLUDING A LARGE PORTION OF CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN S OF 17N BETWEEN 57W-85W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 12N68W. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-82W. ONE EXCEPTION TO CONVECTIVE-FREE SKIES IS A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 62W WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 61W-63W AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 67W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N74W TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N82W. THIS TROUGHING RESULTS IN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AT THE SURFACE ANALYZED FROM 32N65W TO 25N75W. PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 69W-79W...AND FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 75W-83W. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N48W. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 15N E OF 60W AND ARE FURTHER ENHANCED BY SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC S OF 30N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN