000 AXNT20 KNHC 141739 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1735 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N45W TO 10N42W MOVING W ABOUT 15-20 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY PRESENT NEAR THE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 19N62W TO 10N60W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE SRN-MOST EXTENSION OF THE WAVE S OF 12N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 12N16W 10N227W 12N31W TO 11N40W. THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 10N46W TO 9N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 130-170 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN ERN TEXAS AND WRN LOUISIANA...SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FORM THE COAST OF ALABAMA NEAR 30N88W TO 25N90W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE N-CENTRAL AND NW REGIONS OF THE GULF N OF 24N W OF 86W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NOTED OVER THE SW GULF WITHIN 140 NM OFF THE COAST OF TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A NARROW UPPER TROUGH CENTERED INLAND OVER NE MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ENTERING THE FAR ERN GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUPPORTS THE ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION. THE LONG SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NW TODAY ...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE NW GULF SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA WILL SLIDE S MON THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE N-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N78W TO 18N82W...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 78W-84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS S OF PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-81W. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY...EXCEPT FOR THE SRN-MOST EXTENSION OF IT MOVING ACROSS TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE ERN CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N72W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS AROUND ITS AXIS ANALYZED FROM 30N65W TO TH E CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 22N75W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM ARE FROM 22N-26N W OF 70W...AS WELL AS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 61W-67W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE THE AZORES AND A PAIR OF 1030 MB HIGHS NEAR 35N47W AND 35N41W. THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FURTHER ENHANCED BY A SURGE OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST ALOFT COVERING FROM WEST AFRICA TO THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN S OF 30N. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA