000 AXNT20 KNHC 131746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W...FROM 7N TO 16N. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN A LONG-TERM LOOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 34W AND 47W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N54W 14N53W... TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF GAMBIA NEAR 13N17W TO 13N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 13N21W TO 11N28W 9N35W AND 7N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N15W 11N29W 8N36W 7N46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N89W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TO 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 94W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS BEING PUSHED FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N83W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N84W IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W...TO 26N85W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND-TO-23N83W LINE...AND FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER AND ALONG THE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS IN THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AND/OR FORECAST FOR THE PRESENT TIME. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 16N...REACHING 84W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 24N89W GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN ORDER TO COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...TO 17N80W 16N70W 16N60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN PARTS OF PUERTO RICO...IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE JAMAICA CHANNEL AND CUBA. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA...MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM NICARAGUA IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA IN SOUTH AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 12N83W TO 10N77W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/1200 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 1.09 INCHES. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 82W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 28N50W 28N55W...TO A 26N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N75W...TO 22N76W IN THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS BEING PUSHED FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N83W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N59W TO 20N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND-TO-23N83W LINE...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 49W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 27N59W-TO-20N60W SURFACE TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 64W... AND 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W... EVERYTHING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT