000 AXNT20 KNHC 131055 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 15N32W TO 8N31W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS PRECEDING THE AREA DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N50W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 9N48W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SURFACE LOW HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE ITCZ. LOW AND WAVE REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 48W-53W. TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGHS...THUS DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N17W TO 14N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N32W ALONG 6N43W CONTINUING S OF THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N49W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 11N16W ALONG 11N23W 7N33W TO 8N44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NARROW UPPER TROUGH DIPS S ACROSS E TEXAS AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN STILL GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND IN THE GULF W OF A LINE FROM TERREBONNE BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 27N92W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA COVERING THE FAR NE GULF. A WEAK MESOSCALE LOW HAS MOVED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND IS NOW 1014 MB CENTERED AT 13/0900 UTC NEAR 29N85W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA THROUGH THE LOW TO 26N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N88W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 13/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 26N87W INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W CONTINUING TO THE NW CORNER OF GUATEMALA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE TROUGH N OF 20N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W-84W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22N-25N W OF 95W...AND WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF TUXPAN AND W OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE NW THROUGH SUN AS A SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA SLIDES S TO THE FAR NE GULF BY MON. THE MESOSCALE LOW AND TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDS S OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC COVERS THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO CUBA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS AND WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE S COAST FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO W CUBA WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF HAITI BETWEEN 71W-74W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER THEN IN THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA TO NICARAGUA S OF 13N W OF 80W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA E OF 80W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 71W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG BREEZE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO E CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA COVERS THE FAR NW ATLC N OF 28N W OF 75W. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N65W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N57W TO 20N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 25N52W ALONG 26N60W TO 30N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N BETWEEN 70W-78W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W ALONG 35N GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SURGE OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 16N-32N E OF 33W AND FROM 10N-26N BETWEEN 32W-50W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUN THEN SLIDE S TO NEAR 31N MON AS A HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP NEAR 28N63W. THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE W AND REACH FROM 30N65W TO 23N69W TONIGHT FROM 30N70W TO 23N72W SAT NIGHT FROM 30N71W TO 23N74W BY SUN NIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE FAR NW ATLC MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW