000 AXNT20 KNHC 121746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N23W...THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 13N25W AND 8N26W. THE UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM DAKAR SENEGAL SHOWS EVIDENCE OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM 700 MB AND LOWER MOVING THROUGH THERE AROUND 11/1200 UTC. BROAD AND LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THREE COMPUTER MODELS MAKE A FORECAST OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVE AT 700 MB AND AT 850 MB. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 23W AND 24W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N53W 17N51W 10N49W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NEARBY LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N53W 17N52W 10N50W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W FROM 19N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 26N NEAR FLORIDA. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE WAVE ALSO MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS FLORIDA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 11N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N24W TO 8N27W 6N37W AND 7N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 50W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO THE WEST OF 50W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W ACROSS TRINIDAD AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/1200 UTC FOR TRINIDAD WAS 1.06 OF AN INCH. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS NEAR 29N85W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO A 24N88W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N92W JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO A SECOND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N97W...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 88W...TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS REACHED THE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH IS PARALLEL TO THE ENTIRE TEXAS GULF COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 31N93W IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO 28N96W ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO 30N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 27N90W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AND/OR FORECAST FOR THE PRESENT TIME. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 19N64W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO 14N62W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM NICARAGUA IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 8N80W NEAR THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...BEYOND 9N83W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 79W AND COASTAL COSTA RICA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/1200 UTC FOR TRINIDAD WAS 1.09 INCHES. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 81W...EXCEPT FOR 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N50W...TO A 25N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... TO A 28N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND WITHIN 360 NM OF THE INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W...FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W...AND FROM THE BAHAMAS TO 31N BETWEEN 68W AND 82W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING SOUTH FLORIDA. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EASILY ALSO MAY BE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE TROUGH AND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAVE BEEN COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER... TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER DURING THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/1200 UTC FOR FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS WAS 1.49 INCHES. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO 30N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 27N90W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET FROM 13N TO 28N BETWEEN 35W AND 63W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT