000 AXNT20 KNHC 120546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N40W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 9N41W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WHILE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRIER AIR AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM SURROUNDING THE LOW. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W ACROSS CUBA TO JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS ALONG THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W ALONG 13N22W 8N23W TO 6N30W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO JUST E OF THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N40W AND RESUMES W OF THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N42W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 11N-16N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 21W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SW/NW MEXICO EXTENDING AN AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS IN THE SE GULF CENTERED NEAR 23N88W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA AND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR VERACRUZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE GULF S OF 27N BETWEEN 82W-93W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE FAR E GULF. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE TONIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THU THEN WILL STALL FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO SE TEXAS THU NIGHT MOVING BACK NW OF AREA ON FRI. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL ENTER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON THU REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF FRI AND SAT THEN MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS ON SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVER CUBA WHERE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N BETWEEN 83W-86W TO OVER W CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS S PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE OVER CUBA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THU PASSING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON SAT THROUGH SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUN ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT STRONG BREEZE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE E ATLC NEAR 31N37W THROUGH A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR 25N60W TO A THIRD SMALLER UPPER LOW NEAR 31N73W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 68W-77W AND FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 54W-60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 20N-32N W OF 60W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OF 32N E OF BERMUDA THEN DROPPING S ALONG 30N72W TO JUST OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SURGE OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 10N-28N E OF 35W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL ENTER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON THU MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL ATLC LATE FRI INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SAT AND APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS SUN NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW