000 AXNT20 KNHC 111746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 10N TO 21N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NEARBY LOW CLOUDS THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 45W FROM 10N TO 22N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NEARBY LOW CLOUDS THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W FROM 18N IN THE JAMAICA CHANNEL TO 25N JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N73W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF CUBA AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH FEATURE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MORE INVOLVED WITH THE PRECIPITATION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG NEAR THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W AND FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 76W AND ALONG THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W TO 12N25W AND 11N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N36W TO 6N45W AND 6N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W ACROSS TRINIDAD AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W AND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/1200 UTC FOR TRINIDAD WAS 0.48 OF AN INCH. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS NEAR 31N84W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 26N87W...TO A GULF OF MEXICO 23N88W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A WEAKER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N97W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG COVERS THE BAHAMAS FROM CUBA TO 28N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W...ISOLATED MODERATE IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM 22N97W TO 19N92W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 27N99W TO 25N101W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVES LOUISIANA AND TEXAS AND THEIR COASTAL WATERS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 91W AND 99W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N86W...TO 24N94W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AND/OR FORECAST FOR THE PRESENT TIME. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO THE EASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N83W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA...AND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 81W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/1200 UTC FOR TRINIDAD WAS 0.48 OF AN INCH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 13 FEET FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 82W. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS ELSEWHERE RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 28N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N66W... 26N71W...TO A 31N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 240 TO 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG NEAR THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W AND FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 76W AND ALONG THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N54W...TO 34N63W...TO 31N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THREE AREAS OF 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. ONE AREA IS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. A SECOND AREA IS FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. A THIRD AREA IS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT