000 AXNT20 KNHC 110556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS ALONG 35W FROM 12N-22N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH AN AREA OF DRIER AIR BEING INTRODUCED ACROSS THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SAHARAN DUST IS TRAILING THE WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 26N71W OVER HAITI TO NEAR 19N73W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 68W-74W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 7N20W 11N29W TO 8N40W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N9N W OF 23W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SW EXTENDING AN AXIS ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE SE GULF CENTERED NEAR 23N88W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NW TO OVER NE FLORIDA AND SW TO OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 11/0300 UTC FROM 21N90W TO 17N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 20N E OF 93W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE FAR E GULF N OF 25N E OF 85W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA GIVING THE NW GULF MOSTLY S TO SE RETURN FLOW AND COUPLED WITH THE OPPOSING FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF A LINE FROM THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER ALONG 27N92W TO S TEXAS JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE WED CONTINUING W THROUGH LATE THU THEN WEAKENING OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF FRI AND SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE FAR NW GULF THU THEN DRIFT N OF THE AREA FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE ATLC IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO INLAND OVER HAITI AND CUBA BETWEEN 73W-85W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE N OF HAITI WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE E ATLC NEAR 29N33W THROUGH A LOW NEAR 26N56W TO A THIRD NEAR 30N73W CUTTING OFF THE LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 29N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND A PORTION OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE N OF HAITI FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 68W-72W AND FURTHER E FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 54W-62W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OF 32N E OF BERMUDA THEN DROPPING S TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ANOTHER SURGE OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST HAS EMERGED OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC FROM 10N-30N E OF 30W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 30N ON WED THEN SHIFT N OF THE AREA THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE N OF HAITI WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLC REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED NIGHT AND THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL ATLC ON FRI AND ENTER THE CARIBBEAN ON SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW