000
AXNT20 KNHC 100535
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 
23N27N ALONG 18N29W TO 12N28W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON 
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST 
REMAINS SURROUNDING THE WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 25N66W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 
NEAR 18N68W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN 
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW 
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 64W-68W. 

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND OVER MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO JUST  
OF VERACRUZ IS NO LONGER EVIDENT ANS WAS DROPPED FROM THE 
ANALYSIS AT 10/0300 UTC. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 18N16W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 11N28W TO 8N39W 
WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 8N50W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH 
AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 8N-13N 
BETWEEN 15W-21W...WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROF/ITCZ 
BETWEEN 34W-39W...FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 47W-55W INCLUDING THE COAST 
OF SOUTH AMERICA. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N ANCHORED  IN 
THE E PACIFIC REGION IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE 
COAST OF MEXICO S OF 20N W OF 92W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE N 
GULF AND IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH A SERIES OF UPPER 
LOWS TO AN UPPER LOW IN THE SE GULF NEAR 24N84W AND CONTINUES TO 
THE COAST OF MEXICO N OF TAMPICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 28N E OF 85W TO OVER CUBA...THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA/KEYS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AT THE 
SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC 
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N86W. THIS IS 
GIVING THE NW GULF MOSTLY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND COUPLED WITH 
THE OPPOSING FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF MOBILE ALABAMA TO 
TO INLAND OVER TEXAS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF 
WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY 
STATIONARY THROUGH SAT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA AND FAR SE GULF THU. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE E GULF OF 
MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 72W GENERATING 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N TO 
INLAND OVER CUBA...HAITI...AND JAMAICA BETWEEN 72W-80W. THE 
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO 
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF 
OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 84W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N BETWEEN 81W-84W. THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE 
TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. THIS IS 
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER 
TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE MONA PASSAGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE 
N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE THEN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WED AND THU 
MOVING THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
WED THROUGH FRI. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 28N W OF 40W AND ANCHORED 
JUST NE OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 
THE ABOVE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS CENTERED 
NEAR 31N34W...28N49W...27N68W...TO THE UPPER LOW IN THE SE GULF 
OF MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 50W-57W...S OF 28NW OF 77W ACROSS FLORIDA 
AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE MONA PASSAGE. A LARGE SURFACE 
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH W OF 
THE AZORES AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 32N54W 30N68W 
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE ATLC 
S OF 25N E OF 60W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 31N ON 
WED THEN SHIFT N OF THE AREA THU AND FRI. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG IN 
THE MONA PASSAGE WILL REACH THE SE BAHAMAS TUE THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED THEN THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW