000 AXNT20 KNHC 081043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1035 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA YESTERDAY. AS MODEL DATA AND WEATHER OBSERVATIONS BECAME MORE CONCLUSIVE...THE WAVE AXIS WAS ADDED TO THE 07/0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP EXTENDING FROM 19N20W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 12N22W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 5 KT. THE WAVE AXIS LIES ON THE WRN SIDE OF A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CURRENTLY...THE CONVECTION IN THE SRN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE AXIS IS CONFINED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH DISCUSSED BELOW. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ANALYZED FORM 26N52W TO 17N55W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE WRN SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTICED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DESPITE SAHARAN DUST EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AROUND 30N51W HELPING THE WAVE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 23N89W TO 15N90W MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING THE FAR WRN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN N OF 15N W OF 82W...AS WELL AS INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AREAS THAT ARE RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL ARE AT RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES AND SHOULD MONITOR THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W ALONG 12N22W TO 9N28W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO 6N39W. A WEAK 1013 MB SURFACE LOW BREAKS THE ITCZ ANALYZED NEAR 7N42W. THE ITCZ REFORMS SW OF THE LOW NEAR 4N45W AND CONTINUES WSW TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110-150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH W OF 25W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS E OF 25W FROM 8N16N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA TYPE RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING EASTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF N OF 21N. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SSE SURFACE FLOW AROUND A SURFACE 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BASIN NEAR 28N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE N-CENTRAL BASIN N OF 26N BETWEEN 87W-95W. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD TO THE N GULF STATES. ALSO... CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 24N BETWEEN 82W-88W AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. THE MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THESE REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED TO THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND STRAITS. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES JUST SOME WEAK SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ASSOCIATED TO THE TROUGH. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY COVER THE NW BASIN N OF 15N W OF 82W ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE SW BASIN S OF 12N W OF 76W...ASSOCIATED TO A PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NRN COLOMBIA TO ERN PANAMA TO SRN COSTA RICA. WHILE THE RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NW BASIN COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN...THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SW BASIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT AND SLOWLY MOVE INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...PROVOKING FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THESE REGIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-25 KT IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN REACHING TO NEAR GALE FORCE CRITERIA IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W-78W S OF 14N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE SE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 26N W OF 77W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD TURNING AROUND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND STRAITS. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH CONVECTION. SEE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE ...A BROAD AND STRONG 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WRN ATLC KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FAIR WEATHER IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING FROM THE WEST AFRICA TO THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA