000 AXNT20 KNHC 051105 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 23N26W 13N31W. THE CLASSIC INVERTED-V FOR THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CUTTING THROUGH THE CENTER OF PUERTO RICO...TO CURACAO IN THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 69W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM EASTERN GUATEMALA... CURVING INTO EL SALVADOR...AND TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COSTA RICA COASTAL WATERS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER AREA OF SENEGAL AND GAMBIA NEAR 13N16W...13N20W AND 9N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N27W TO 8N33W AND 7N41W. THE ITCZ IS INDISTINCT AFTER 7N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W...REACHING THE COAST OF GUYANA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 20W AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 22N42W 15N45W 10N49W 6N50W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N57W... TO A 30N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ALONG 27N...TO A 25N86W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N101W CENTRAL TEXAS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 19N100W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 19N TO 20N WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 94W...AND IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N56W TO 28N71W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1018 MB EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N84W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND NO 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AND/OR PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT. FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD THE BAHAMAS... INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N54W... TO 26N60W TO A 24N74W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 13N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 50W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CUTTING THROUGH THE CENTER OF PUERTO RICO...TO CURACAO IN THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 69W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 7N83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 76W IN THE GULF OF URABA TO THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FINDS ITSELF IN A BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 82W...AND FOR THE 67W TROPICAL WAVE. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. IT IS POSSIBLE TO FIND MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 35N46W 29N47W 22N49W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N56W TO 28N71W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1018 MB EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SWEEPING ACROSS SPAIN AND PORTUGAL SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W TO 31N20W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 46W AND 60W...AND FOR THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT