000 AXNT20 KNHC 041802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUL 04 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N24W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 10N26W. THIS WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE NOTED ON TPW PRODUCT. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE IS ATTACHED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS DISCUSSED BELOW. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 19N61W TO 11N62W MOVING W AT ABOUT 15-20 KT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY AND MARINE OBS NEAR THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT SHOWED A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND THE WAVE AXIS...EMBEDDED IN AN ENHANCED SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON TPW PRODUCT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 58W-68W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARDS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONVECTION MAXIMIZED S OF 17N W OF 81W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND ERN PACIFIC. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE ERN PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FORM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W ALONG 11N20W TO 9N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 6N53W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50-100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 46W-53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF 28W FROM 8N-13N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE BASIN FROM A NEAR STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH LOCATED IN THE EASTERN BASIN NEAR 27N84W. ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY MOVING SLOWLY WNW ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WITHIN 70 NM OFF THE SW TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NOTED OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...FAR ERN LOUISIANA...AND PANAMA CITY/BIG BEND REGION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW UP TO 10 KT IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO MAIN REGIONS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE THE HEADLINES OF TODAYS WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO PRODUCING NUMEROUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THESE ISLANDS E OF 68W N OF 12N. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TRACK WNW ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SECOND REGION OF INTEREST IS THE FAR SW BASIN...WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM NRN COLOMBIA TO ERN PANAMA... THEN NW ACROSS SRN COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 75W. THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE ERN BASIN NEAR 14N65W AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING N-S ALONG 75W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS WSW ACROSS THE WRN NORTH ATLC ALONG 32N65W TO 20N74W...THEN S ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN ALONG 75W. DESPITE THE LONG AXIS...THIS FEATURE IS ONLY SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 70W-75W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N44W TO 28N46W. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IS NOTED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED A SMALL AREA OF WEAK TROUGHING W OF THE BAHAMAS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS NEAR THE N CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N W OF 78W. THIS AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW AT ABOUT 5-8 KT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A BROAD/STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ANCHORED W OF THE AZORES BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 40N34W. THE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY SAHARAN AIR ALOFT NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 SAT TRACKING PRODUCT FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA