000 AXNT20 KNHC 032333 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N20W TO 11N22W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE WRN SIDE OF SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS TO THE AFRICAN COAST. THIS LOCATION ALSO ALIGNS WELL WITH MODEL DATA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 15W-23W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N53W TO 10N57W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A LARGE AND FAST MOVING SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 54W-60W. TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N80W TO 12N80W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE VALUES EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 80W-83W...AND FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 77W-80W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA BISSAU AT 12N16W CONTINUING OVER ATLC WATERS ALONG 10N27W 9N42W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N42W TO 10N51W. BESIDES CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 39W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY CENTERED AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N84W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF CENTERED NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA AT 30N89W. MOSTLY DRY AIR COVERS THE BASIN...WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT MUCH OF THE GULF COAST...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND MEXICO. THESE ARE LIKELY THE RESULT OF TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT FORM FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE NE GULF COAST. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC WINDS ARE AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH INCREASING IN SPEED TO 10-15 KTS IN THE WRN GULF AND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ARE ALSO RESULTING IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COVERS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE E PAC THROUGH THE TWO COUNTRIES TO NRN COLOMBIA AS WELL AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 15N66W...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE STILL E OF THE ISLANDS. STRONG TRADEWIND FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 25 KT APPROACHING 30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. EXPECT THE WAVE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN TO CONTINUE WWD...ALONG WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE BASIN WHICH SHOULD REACH THE ERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR WRN ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 28N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 69W-75W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALSO TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N42W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 33N47W TO 27N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE AXIS FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 39W-43W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTS A 1031 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N35W WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN ATLC THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALSO EXTENDS FROM 35N25W TO 22N33W AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A STABLE SAHARAN AIR LAYER EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM AFRICA TO THE ERN CARIBBEAN AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON