000 AXNT20 KNHC 021806 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUL 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 17N45W TO 10N43W MOVING W ABOUT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED ON TPW PRODUCT. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALED NO SIGNIFICANT TURNING AROUND THE WAVE...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE AXIS. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG 50W/52W WAS DROPPED OFF THE 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP DUE TO THE LACK OF WAVE SIGNATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN ALONG 18N72W TO 12N71W MOVING W AT ABOUT 15-20 KT. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT TURNING AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS MOST NOTICEABLE WELL E AND SE OF THE WAVE AXIS...WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED BETWEEN 65W-71W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FORM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N15W TO 7N32W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N46W TO NEAR 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-15N E OF 20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE THE DOMINANT FACTOR ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ENE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG A WEAKENING 1019 MB HIGH IN THE EASTERN BASIN NEAR 27N84W. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS AROUND SRN GEORGIA. WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE ERN GULF ASSOCIATED TO THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS ESE WINDS UP TO 15 KT. A WEAK CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FAR ERN GULF ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT... ASSOCIATED TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. SIMILAR CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SW GULF DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS...AS WELL AS A WEAK ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N77W. THE FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO PARTS OF THE ERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...SUPPORTING SOME WEAK SCATTERED CONVECTION BETWEEN 65W-71W...EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE FAR SW BASIN NEAR THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND WRN PANAMA...IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE WRN COAST OF THESE COUNTRIES. THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH LIMITED CONVECTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DRIFTS WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 29N38W...SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N41W TO 26N40W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80-140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 32N59W TO 27N62W...DENOTING A SMALL AREA OF SW AND SE CONVERGING WINDS BETWEEN A WRN N ATLC TROUGH AND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE ERN ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS LOOSING ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS OVER AN AREA OF DEFORMATION NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THEREFORE...NO RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOTED. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS... ANALYZED FROM 24N75W TO 22N78W...GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ANCHORED SW OF THE AZORES BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 37N33W. THE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY SAHARAN AIR ALOFT NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 SAT TRACKING PRODUCT FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA