000 AXNT20 KNHC 020604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N38W 9N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 38W AND 42W. A COMPARATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 7N TO 11N. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N68W 14N68W 12N67W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS ABOUT 600 NM TO THE EAST OF THE 15N77W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OR MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W TO 13N20W 9N27W 10N32W. THE ITCZ STARTS ALONG 10N37W TO 7N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 16W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...COVER MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 100W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA... TO A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SQUEEZED INTO THE SPACE THAT IS BETWEEN THE MEXICO CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH THE TROUGH AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CYCLONIC CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE LAST EIGHT HOURS OR SO IN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR TO THE EAST OF 100W. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN AND HAS BEEN IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GEORGIA FOR THE LAST EIGHT HOURS OR SO... WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT CUTS THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST POINT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN REACHES THE FLORIDA STRAITS/THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND BETWEEN CUBA AND LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N85W. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CURVES NORTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND NO 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AND/OR PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N60W...TO PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AND THEN TO A 15N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N68W 14N68W 12N67W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS ABOUT 600 NM TO THE EAST OF THE 15N77W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OR MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N76W IN COLOMBIA TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...TO NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 77W AND 84W. THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FINDS ITSELF IN A BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE IN GENERAL. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 67W TROPICAL WAVE...AND THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET...TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 25N62W...TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 28N TO 31N AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N36W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N38W 30N40W 27N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 29N TO 33N BETWEEN 37W AND 43W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO 28N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO A 1018 MB EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N85W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 16N TO 24N TO THE EAST OF 39W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT