000 AXNT20 KNHC 011743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH WHEW UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N37W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 8N32W MOVING 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION ALONG THE CENTER OF THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N44W TO 5N46W MOVING W NEAR NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH SLIGHT DRY AIR INTRUSION ALONG THE CENTER OF THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N63W TO 11N63W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A SURFACE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING AN UPPER LOW WHICH IS GENERATING ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N16W CONTINUING ALONG 14N22W TO 10N31W. THE ITCZ IS BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 9N FROM 35W-44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 10N BETWEEN 21W-24W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 9N BETWEEN 38W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS S OF GALVESTON AND MEXICO N OF TUXPAN. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS EXTENDING TO OVER THE SE GULF PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-25N E OF 87W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE E GULF THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W ACROSS THE GULF MON THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE UPPER LOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 16N76W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N57W TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 10N55W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO ALONG 12N63W TO 16N68W. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS EXTENDING TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 75W-83W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 9N79W TO OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO S NICARAGUA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MON AND ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/NW CARIBBEAN AND COVERS THE W ATLC S OF 28N W OF 62W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 63W-67W. EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N70W OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO 21N74W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS TO THE N CENTERED NEAR 30N73W SUPPORTING A SECOND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 33N64W ALONG 30N64W TO 27N65W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 32N57W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 25N50W TO ALONG 29N57W TO 31N58W. A SECOND LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 30N36W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N37W TO 25N41W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 33W-42W. OTHERWISE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 250 NM W OF THE AZORES EXTENDING ALONG 26N/27N ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WEAKNESSES IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGHS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO 28N THROUGH THU. THE WESTERN MOST SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MON AND MON NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW