000 AXNT20 KNHC 011117 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... WE ARE FOLLOWING THE POLEWARD PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT EARLIER WAS ALONG 23W/24W AT 01/0000 UTC. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE VORTICITY CENTER IS REMAINING MORE TO THE EAST ALONG 24W/25W. THE NEW LOCATION OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N35W 14N34W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ITCZ IS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 31W AND 34W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 27W AND 28W. A COMPARATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 5N TO 12N. NEARBY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. SCATTERED STRONG PRECIPITATION IS FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD TO 12N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W...AND FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. PRECIPITATION IS WEAKENING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTS SENEGAL AND GAMBIA NEAR 13N17W TO 9N24W 9N33W AND 6N40W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 5N43W 4N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W JUST TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 50W INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES EXTENDS FROM A 32N58W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 27N64W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 27N72W... ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 26N90W CYCLONIC CENTER. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N61W TO 30N63W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N63W 28N67W AND 27N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 52W AND THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N68W 23N69W 20N71W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 25N102W. CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS MEXICO...TEXAS...AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 95W AND 109W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 26N90W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A NORTHERN GUATEMALA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS COVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM HONDURAS TO BELIZE AND GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG PRECIPITATION ALSO IS ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS GULF COAST. A COMPARATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SQUEEZED INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BETWEEN THE 25N102W CYCLONIC CENTER AND THE 26N90W CYCLONIC CENTER. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 26N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO A 1017 MB SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N84W...TO 25N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE 29N96W 21N88W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N60W TO 17N66W... TO A 15N74W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. SCATTERED STRONG PRECIPITATION IS FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD TO 12N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. PRECIPITATION IS WEAKENING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 81W IN PANAMA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATER THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 75W/76W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST AND THE NICARAGUA COAST. THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FINDS ITSELF IN A BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE IN GENERAL. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 62W TROPICAL WAVE...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 85W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 50W... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N36W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 34N BETWEEN 28W AND 46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N34W 26N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 33W AND 37W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N48W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N67W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO A 1017 MB SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N84W...TO 25N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS ACCOMPANYING THE 42W TROPICAL WAVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT