000 AXNT20 KNHC 281745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1735 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 15N42W TO 8N44W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N43W. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP MOISTURE NOTED ON TPW PRODUCT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 41W-47W. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA TO NEAR 12N80W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. BOTH MODEL DATA AND LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGEST A VERY WEAK TO DISSIPATED WAVE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME AS IT MOVES BENEATH DRY AND STABLE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 7N25W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N35W TO 82N42W. THEN...THE ITCZ RE-FORMS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N47W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 6N56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N E OF 32W...AS WELL AS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-42. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON CENTERED NEAR 24N92W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1019 MB HIGH IN S-CENTRAL ALABAMA EXTENDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF A DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 23N92W. THE SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS GENERATING MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN ON TPW IMAGERY. A CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CONCENTRATED ON THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REGION FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 92W-96W. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST OF TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE MEAN TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH THE RIDGE CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE BASIN FREE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FAIR WEATHER E OF 75W IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY SAHARAN DUST ALOFT EVIDENT ON THE METEOSAT-9 S.A.L. TRACKING PRODUCT. UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SW BASIN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE...15-20 KT TRADE WIND FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY W OF 78W. THIS FLOW ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA INTO THE REMNANT 1004 MB LOW OF DEBBY NEAR 32N73W. THIS FRONT CONTINUES SW FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS ALONG 26N77W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 25N80W. THIS REMNANT LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WITHIN 50-150 NM ON THE SE...NE...AND NW QUADRANTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 200 NM E AND NE OF THE LOW CENTER. THE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE FRONT IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC WITH ONLY A DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N36W TO 23N47W. LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY IS NOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BENIGN WEATHER OVER THE ERN ATLC IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY SAHARAN DUST ALOFT EVIDENT ON THE METEOSAT-9 S.A.L. TRACKING PRODUCT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA