000 AXNT20 KNHC 250001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 0000 UTC...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS CENTERED NEAR 28.3N 86.0W...OR ABOUT 115 MI SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SEPARATED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...AS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR E AND NE GULF WATERS E OF 90W...AS WELL AS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 125 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS UP TO 22 FT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE PANHANDLE OVER THE 24-48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT43/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS EXTENDING FROM 14N22W TO 7N25W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. HENCE...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS PART OF THE MONSOONAL GYRE DISCUSSED ABOVE. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS EXTENDING FROM 17N47W TO 9N48W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES A WEAK SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND SAHARAN DUST COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WATERS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 20N17W ALONG 13N24W 7N30W TO 6N39W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES WNW TO NEAR 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 16W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE THE CENTER OF ATTENTION THIS EVENING. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD AND COVERS ALMOST THE ENTIRE GULF DISCUSSION AREA. THE BROAD SCALE CIRCULATION IS DRAWING MOISTURE AND HEAVY PRECIP TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND WRN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA. THE GREATEST AREA OF IMPACT IS NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY...DEPICTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE E AND NE GULF WATERS...AS WELL AS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WRN FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITTING OVER THE NW BASIN NEAR 26N94W. HOWEVER THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE IS MINIMAL DUE TO DRY AIR INTRUSION NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CARIBBEAN SEA... GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT...SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 18N W OF 82W...ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY. PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE ...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING A GREAT PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 67W. SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE FAR ERN BASIN FURTHER SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS REGION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF DUST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO CUBA. IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZY SKY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FAR WRN ATLC W OF 77W...INCLUDING THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS REGION OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY. TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT...BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WRN CUBA AND AN UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR 31N61W. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERATING A FEW CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 60W-77W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL N ATLC SUPPORTS A OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N39W TO 28N49W. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N37W TO 25N49W GENERATING SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 50 NM E OF THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC BASINS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WSW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ANCHORED BY A BROAD/ELONGATED 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 38N18W. THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE REGIONS ARE FURTHER ENHANCED BY SAHARAN DUST DEPICTED ON THE METEOSAT-9 SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT. THIS AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA ALL THE WAY TO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA