000 AXNT20 KNHC 240604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF STATIONARY TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT 24/0300 UTC IS NEAR 26.3N 87.5W...OR ABOUT 215 MILES/350 KM TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 24N84W...IN SOUTH FLORIDA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 27N81W...AND IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE 15 FEET HIGH ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE 12 FEET OR HIGHER ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT43/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. THE WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SAHARAN DUST COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL AFRICA NEAR 17N16W TO 10N20W 5N29W 5N34W AND 5N47W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N34W TO 7N47W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N15W 6N23W 6N31W AND 6N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM DEBBY EASILY IS THE MAIN FEATURE AT THIS MOMENT. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W...AND IN THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS FROM 28N TO THE COAST BETWEEN 91W AND 92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO 28N87W...AND IT CONTINUES FROM 24N88W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19N93W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF PUERTO RICO. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COMES FROM THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 17N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 15N65W 13N69W...TOWARD THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A 29N65W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES AWAY FROM THE 29N65W CYCLONIC CENTER AND IT ULTIMATELY MOVES ACROSS THE PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO. PLEASE READ THE MARINE FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 71W. ALSO READ ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 79W. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS LIKELY IN SECTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 31N44W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N44W TO 29N53W AND 30N59W. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD 32N42W 31N44W COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N38W 28N43W. THE COLD FRONT IS MARKED BY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 29N30W 23N40W 23N59W TO 27N79W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE CURRENT COLD FRONT FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT