000 AXNT20 KNHC 230604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 27N87W TO A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N88W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS FOR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... FOR THE LAST FOUR DAYS OR SO. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW COVERS THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...EXTENDING TO THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...CUBA TO THE WEST OF 80W...THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST 90W...FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS TO THE NORTH OF 23N. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RESIDENTS AND/OR PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH DURING THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N32W TO 4N35W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SAHARAN DUST COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WATERS. ANY CONVECTION TO THE SE OF THE WAVE AXIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W ALONG 8N20W TO 5N25W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO NEAR 4N34W. THEN IT RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 4N37W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR EQ49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 26W-33W...AND FROM 3N-10N E OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 92W. THE SPECIAL FEATURE THAT IS THE 1004 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH COVER PRETTY MUCH THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...NHCTWOAT...FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER/SPECIAL FEATURE. PLEASE READ THE MARINE FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE NEAR THE TROUGH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO TH WEST OF 70W. THE NORTHWERLY WIND FLOW COMES FROM THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 16N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 14N62W 14N66W...TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A 28N68W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES AWAY FROM THE 28N68W CYCLONIC CENTER AND IT ULTIMATELY MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. PLEASE READ THE MARINE FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 71W. ALSO READ ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 77W. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS LIKELY IN SECTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N68W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION LINGERS IN THIS SAME AREA. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 53W...AND WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N48W 28N50W 25N54W 25N60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 29N31W...TO 23N40W...THROUGH A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N45W...THROUGH A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N61W...TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. PLEASE READ THE MARINE FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE RELATED TO THE 32N COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT