000 AXNT20 KNHC 201141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 53.5W AT 20/0900 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 513 NM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING E AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE N QUADRANT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF SW AFRICA ALONG 22W/23W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. DAKAR UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATES THAT THE UPPER VORTEX MOVED ACROSS NEAR 19/0000 UTC WHILE THE LOWER VORTEX MOVED ACROSS DAKAR AROUND 20/0000 UTC. DUE TO THIS THE WAVE PLACEMENT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 30 KT. WAVE IS A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE AND THUS IS FAST MOVING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE S OF 14N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N16W TO 12N20W. THE ITCZ STARTS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N28W ALONG 6N34W 7N45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 9W-19W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF W AFRICA...FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 21W-49W...AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 7N49W TO 10N60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER LOW OVER NE MEXICO REMAINS NEAR 26N99W COVERING THE NW GULF WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW OVER THE NE GULF APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING THIS MORNING AND IS CENTERED NEAR 28N87W. THE S GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH OPPOSING UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N E OF 90W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER FLORIDA FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W GULF S OF 16N W OF 94W AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N BETWEEN 90W-94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF W OF 93W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM WNW OF BERMUDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE SE GULF THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER YUCATAN AND MOVE INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF THU THEN DRIFT NW TO NEAR 24N93W SUN WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS GIVING THE MOST OF CARIBBEAN ENE FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM W CUBA NEAR 22N84W ALONG 19N87W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N88W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N TO INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 75W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 66W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING THEN BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NW TO THE GEORGIA COAST WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH BERMUDA TO 27N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM 30N67W ALONG 27N72W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE FLORIDA COAST JUST S OF MIAMI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-32N W OF 60W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 28N TO THE SURFACE TROUGH W OF 75W TO OVER FLORIDA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N43W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NW TOWARD FLORIDA THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD BEHIND THE TROUGH THROUGH SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW