000 AXNT20 KNHC 200544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS CENTERED NEAR 38.8N 56.0W AT 20/0300 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 490 NM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING E-SE AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE E QUADRANT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF SW AFRICA ALONG 21W/22W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 21W-26W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 30 KT. WAVE IS A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE AND THUS IS FAST MOVING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 8N54W TO 10N59W. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W TO 11N20W. THE ITCZ STARTS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N26W ALONG 6N37W 5N45W TO 8N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 9W-19W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF W AFRICA AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 35W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS. ONE IS CENTERED INLAND OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 26N99W COVERING THE W GULF AND THE SECOND COVERING THE E GULF CENTERED NEAR 28N86W. LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH OPPOSING UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N E OF 88W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER S FLORIDA...FROM 20N-23N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO...AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF 20N E OF VERACRUZ. ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 23N W OF 91W. THE NE GULF REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE SE GULF WED AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF THU THEN DRIFT NW TO NEAR 24N93W SUN WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE E GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EXTENDING GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY ENE FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM OFF THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N82W ALONG 18N87W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 77W-88W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE E CARIBBEAN NE OF LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N70W TO TRINIDAD INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WED. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN WED THEN BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NW TO THE GEORGIA COAST WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH BERMUDA TO 27N69W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM 30N67W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 25N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND 30N TO 20N W OF 60W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N45W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NW TOWARD FLORIDA WED THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD BEHIND THE TROUGH WED THROUGH SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW