000
AXNT20 KNHC 161746
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1735 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING 
FROM 13N35W TO 4N37W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS LOCATED AT THE 
LEADING EDGE A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE 
DEVELOPING WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF 
THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN EXTENDING 
FROM 17N70W TO 11N72W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. DESPITE THE WAVE 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THE WAVE OS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA 
OF UNFAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT AND THUS NO ACTIVITY IS DETECTED AT 
THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 7N20W TO 6N27W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS 
CONTINUES WSW TO 5N35W. THE ITCZ REAPPEARS W OF THE CENTRAL ATLC 
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 4N40W TO 2N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED WEAK 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N E OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS INTRUDING OVER THE FAR NE 
BASIN NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF FROM 29N92W TO 
25N85W. DOPPLER RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
WITHIN 130 NM NE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AS WELL AS N OF 28N 
BETWEEN 90W-95W. MARINE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS HAVE 
REPORTED GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL 
HOURS. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL 
SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD AND DEVELOP INTO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM NEAR 27N92W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF 
LOUISIANA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER AREA OF ACTIVE 
WEATHER TO WATCH FOR IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND COASTAL 
WATERS NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE OUTER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA IS AFFECTING THIS REGION WITH 
SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF 22N W OF 91W. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED 
TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...MAXIMIZED 
AROUND A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED 50 NM OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-21N W OF 80W. SIMILAR IS OVER 
THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN...WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN 
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON 
TROUGH EXTENDING OVER PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTRIES. A TROPICAL IS 
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 
17N70W TO 11N72W. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AN 
AREA OF UNFAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT AND THUS NO ACTIVITY IS DETECTED 
AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER FAIR 
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN 
THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH IS OVER THE WRN ATLC SUPPORTING 
A 1009 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 31N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS SSW FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 26N67W TO THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE 
ALOFT OVER THE BAHAMAS IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 270 NM NW OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS...AS WELL AS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 70W-77W. ASIDE 
THE MAIN LOW...MULTIPLE SWIRLS ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE THROUGH AXIS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 
24 HOURS...BEFORE LIFTING NNE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE 
N-CENTRAL ATLC AFTER THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD 
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC 
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 33N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA