000 AXNT20 KNHC 161120 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N34W 9N35W 3N36W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. THE WAVE IS CLOSE TO COMPARATIVE MAXIMUM VALUES IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM 10N TO 14N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 25N64W 20N62W 14N62W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W 6N20W 5N31W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 3N37W 2N44W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W... AND TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N88W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS FLOW EMANATES ULTIMATELY FROM THE WIND REGIME THAT SURROUNDS HURRICANE CARLOTTA THAT IS ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT 200 NM TO THE WEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 26N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N73W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO WHICH THE TROUGH WAS CONNECTED...WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS FROM THAT SYSTEM...ALONG 87W FROM 24N TO 28N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 84W AND 94W ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 91W/92W FROM 21N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO 15N IN SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 90W AND 98W. MUCH OF THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER PRECIPITATION THAT HAD FORMED IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS WEAKENED AND RE-FORMED IN THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...IN LARGELY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 87W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N64W 20N62W 14N62W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM 10N TO 14N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 25N64W 14N62W. THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS BECOME A BROAD OPEN SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A 74W/75W COLOMBIA SURFACE TROUGH COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS COLOMBIA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 76W AND 86W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N74W TO 23N72W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N63W 25N64W 20N62W 14N62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ANOTHER SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N65W...TO 28N67W AND 26N78W AT ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 22N TO 34N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W...AND FROM 22N TO 32N BETWEEN 63W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 16/0000 UTC WAS 2.52 INCHES. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N20W...TO 29N30W 24N42W 22N64W TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N21W 25N27W 13N41W...NOT ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ACCOMPANY THE 30N65W LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT