000 AXNT20 KNHC 160602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N31W 7N34W 3N34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 31W AND 37W. THE WAVE IS CLOSE TO COMPARATIVE MAXIMUM VALUES IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N61W 14N64W 10N65W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 27N65W 21N64W 16N62W 14N63W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR THE BORDER OF GUINEA-BISSAU AND GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 6N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N20W TO 7N33W 4N40W...AND 4N51W NEAR THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COAST OF BRAZIL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 11W AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N61W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N89W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EMANATES ULTIMATELY FROM THE WIND REGIME THAT SURROUNDS HURRICANE CARLOTTA THAT IS ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT 200 NM TO THE WEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF FLORIDA...TO 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N87W...AND CONTINUING TO 26N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE CENTER OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO...FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NORTHWARD... FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W...AND IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N... IN LARGELY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 28N87W LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND 20 KNOT WINDS THAT SURROUND IT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N61W 14N64W 10N65W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 27N65W 21N64W 16N62W 14N63W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 11N81W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS COLOMBIA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3... FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 72W...AND THE 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N78W TO 24N75W IN THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N65W 21N64W 16N62W 14N63W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ANOTHER SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N67W...TO 28N66W AND 26N74W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N74W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N TO 26N...AND BEYOND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 24N TO 33N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W...AND FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 16/0000 UTC WAS 2.52 INCHES. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N22W...TO 30N30W 25N46W 21N66W TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANT OF A FORMER COLD FRONT...PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 26N48W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N22W 24N29W 18N38W 14N46W...NOT ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT IF ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ACCOMPANY THE 30N67W LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT