000 AXNT20 KNHC 140551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 15N21W TO 4N26W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A BROAD AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 4N-14N BETWEEN 18W-27W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N50W TO 6N52W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-10N W OF THE WAVE TO 56W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N82W TO 14N83W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL. THE ITCZ STARTS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N27W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N41W TO E OF THE W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N50W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N54W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 31W-35W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 43W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MEXICO ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS S TEXAS TO THE NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA ALONG 23N90W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR 19N95W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 14/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 22N89W ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 17N92W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 96W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDING AT 14/0300 UTC FROM SE ALABAMA INTO THE GULF JUST E OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH A 1016 MB HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 26N89W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E THROUGH EARLY FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NE GULF THU BECOMING STATIONARY FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO 28N87W BY THU EVENING INTO FRI BEFORE MOVING E OF FLORIDA LATER FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD S OVER GEORGIA ON SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 14N78W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N81W ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N E OF 75W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SAME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS. WEAK W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE WNW DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE FAR W ATLC NEAR 32N79W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 14/0300 UTC ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N77W TO THE FLORIDA COAST JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE. A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N75W TO 29N79W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE BAHAMAS EXTENDING AT 14/0300 UTC FROM 26N76W TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 47W-63W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N48W ALONG 27N53W TO 25N60W AND A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N47W ALONG 26N50W TO 23N55W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES LEAVING THE E ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO 28N80W THU NIGHT BEFORE ACCELERATING EASTWARD AND DISSIPATING FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 31N70W TO THE N BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW