000 AXNT20 KNHC 132326 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 16N20W TO 5N23W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEW SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 18W-24W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N49W TO 6N50W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N80W TO 15N82W MOVING WNW 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 79W-89W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 14N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES FROM 7N26W TO 6N40W TO 8N50W TO GUYANA AT 6N58W. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N89W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND FLORIDA...AND INLAND LOUISIANA. SIMILAR THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER INLAND S MEXICO BETWEEN 90W-97W. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N95W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING PRECIPITATION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS AND RAIN OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT SIMILAR PRECIPITATION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND SOUTH MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1007 MB LOW IS ALSO FURTHER S OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 11N82W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 81W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 64W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS. SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE S AND W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 77W-79W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 25N75W TO 22N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 68W-76W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N49W TO 26N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 31N47W TO 24N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N30W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 45W-65W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT... ADDITIONAL CONVECTION E OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA