000 AXNT20 KNHC 131746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1735 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N45W TO 8N46W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N79W TO 13N81W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS LACKING OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N21W TO 6N30W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N40W 6N50W TO 8N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N W OF 55W...FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 36W-43W...AND FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 15W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND NE TO SW ACROSS THE GULF. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT SURROUNDS THIS FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LIFTING ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OVER THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OFF THE ERN COAST OF TEXAS E OF 95W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N88W. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER IN THE CENTRAL GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF LATE THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE SE AND SW CORNERS OF THE BASIN ARE PARTICULARLY SATURATED. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND SRN COSTA RICA...GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 74W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE BASIN FROM THE DEEP TROPICS...ASSOCIATED TO A STREAM OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ ENDING JUST S OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NW BASIN ...BUT REMAINS INACTIVE AS IT TRAVELS WESTWARD WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THE NW CARIBBEAN UNTIL DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTING A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COASTS OF THE CAROLINAS... EXTENDING ALONG 31N80W TO INLAND ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 30N81W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N W OF 77W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS ANALYZED FROM 26N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 70W-77W. TO THE NE OF THIS SYSTEM...A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N68W KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST ATLC UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING AN OCCLUDED 1009 MB LOW N OF THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N50W TO 26N27W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE ATTACHED TO THE FRONT AXIS. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LIES A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ANALYZED FROM NEAR 31N48W TO 24N54W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS CONVECTIVE AREA COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUGGESTED ON UPPER LEVEL WIND MODEL DATA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1027 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC LATER THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA