000 AXNT20 KNHC 130550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N42W TO 5N44W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N78W TO 10N79W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO 19N78W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N20W TO 6N29W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N34W 7N42W THE RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 10W-20W INCLUDING THE COAST OF W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM 5N34W TO 10N47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MEXICO ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS S TEXAS TO THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NEAR 25N85W. THIS IS NARROWING THE UPPER TROUGH THAT PREVIOUSLY DOMINATED THE GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 24N90W TO AN UPPER LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W TO OVER S MEXICO BEYOND 17N96W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 13/0300 UTC EXTENDS OVER THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N E OF 93W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND S MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE GULF FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A 1019 MB HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 28N92W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL LINGER IN THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THU THEN DISSIPATING FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NE OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO NICARAGUA THEN N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO GIVING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 72W-76W INCLUDING HAITI AND THE SE COAST OF CUBA. W ATLC WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU THEN CONCENTRATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE FRI AND SAT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS ALONG 77W TO BEYOND 32N COVERING THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC FROM 65W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AT 13/0300 UTC EXTENDING FROM 26N73W THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 71W-78W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-70W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W EXTENDING ALONG 26N54W TO 24N63W WITH A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N48W TO 25N52W AND A COLD FRONT TO THE W EXTENDING THROUGH 32N52W ALONG 29N56W TO 27N62W. A SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES LEAVING THE E ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC WED NIGHT REACHING FROM 32N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI MORNING THEN WILL REACH FROM 32N57W TO THE SE BAHAMAS SAT MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT AND DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH THROUGH SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW