000 AXNT20 KNHC 121757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 15N37W TO 8N39W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 18N69W TO NEAR 11N72W MOVING W AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS INACTIVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF ITS AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N15W ALONG 7N21W TO 6N32W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS CONTINUES ALONG 6N44W TO 7N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N E OF 25W...AND FROM 6N-12N W OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE TO NO LIFTING IS ASSOCIATED TO THIS UPPER FEATURE...HAVING NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. INSTEAD...DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINING INLAND OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW UP TO 15 KT IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N87W. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY STABLE AIR COVERS A GREAT PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MOST OF IT RELATED TO SAHARAN DUST FROM WEST AFRICA THAT IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 13N W OF 75W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ENTERING THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE BASIN FROM THE DEEP TROPICS... ASSOCIATED TO A STREAM OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE REMAINS INACTIVE AS IT TRAVELS WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING AN OCCLUDED 1010 MB LOW N OF THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N54W ALONG 27N63W DISSIPATING NEAR 30N71W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE ATTACHED TO THE FRONT AXIS. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LIES A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N50W CONTINUING SW ALONG 24N60W... THEN WESTWARD AS IS DISSIPATES TO NEAR 24N70W...WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO ERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 125 NM AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF 58W. THIS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUGGESTED ON UPPER LEVEL WIND MODEL DATA. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WEST THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THROUGH WED AND DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA