000 AXNT20 KNHC 120537 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 12N29W TO 4N33W MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 4N-6N BETWEEN 27W-32W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 23N60W THROUGH THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 16N64W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO JUST S OF THE CENTRAL ATLC STATIONARY FRONT AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CURRENTLY NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N19W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N28W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N34W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N41W 6N50W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 9N14W TO 5N26W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE AFRICA AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 48W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE SW COAST OF LOUISIANA S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N92W. THIS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE W GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE E GULF TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM FLORIDA NEAR NAPLES TO 23N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INLAND OVER S MEXICO MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 92W-96W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF TUE AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WED AND THU BEFORE DISSIPATING FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NE OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA GIVING THE CARIBBEAN NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAIN OVER THE BASIN N OF 14N. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY S OF 12N W OF 79W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST OF PANAMA. A BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM OVER HAITI NEAR 19N72W ALONG 19N77W TO THE W TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N84W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 18N83W TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 19N87W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRI. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THE W CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EXTENDING S TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND E TO 75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA BUT ARE DIMINISHING. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER NE FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE W ATLC AT 12/0300 UTC EXTENDING FROM 26N72W THROUGH THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS CHAIN TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM E AND 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-75W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N49W EXTENDING ALONG 27N56W TO 24N64W AND A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE W ATLC ALONG 32N59W 31N63W TO 32N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180/200 NM E AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF 60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 61W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES LEAVING THE E ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE NEWLY DEVELOPED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT THROUGH WED AND DISSIPATE ON THU. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE SE WED AND THU. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW ATLC THU INTO FRI. THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N72W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT AND FROM 32N62W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW