000 AXNT20 KNHC 111733 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N27W TO 6N31W MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 27W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N58W TO NEAR 15N63W MOVING WNW NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS INACTIVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF ITS AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 7N21W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N33W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N43W TO 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 42W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 22W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BASE OF A RATHER DRY UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE TO NO LIFTING IS ASSOCIATED TO THIS UPPER FEATURE...HAVING NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. INSTEAD...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS REMAINED OVER THE INLAND COASTAL REGIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA SINCE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS WESTWARD OVER THE GULF GENERATING A SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT OF UP TO 15 KT. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 10N W OF 75W. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF AN INACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N74W. THIS IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE WRN ATLC. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N50W EXTENDING ALONG 25N60W TO 23N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 62W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE W OF 62W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF IT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA