000 AXNT20 KNHC 111051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N25W TO 6N26W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 5N-9N BETWEEN 23W-30W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N57W OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 12N62W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W ALONG 11N19W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N28W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N42W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 9W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 45W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GULF OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA THEN SE TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE NW GULF. AN UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SE STATES E OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE GULF COAST BETWEEN PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE N GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO MISSISSIPPI HAS RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER S MEXICO MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 94W-96W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS W OVER THE GULF ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF TUE AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WED AND THU DISSIPATING FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NE OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N E OF 82W AND S OF 13N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S NICARAGUA. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THOSE ISLANDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIS THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRI. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH TUE THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDS INTO THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N76W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W AND 70W WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N48W EXTENDING ALONG 28N53W TO 26N59W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 62W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES LEAVING THE E ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT W OVER THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT THROUGH WED AND DISSIPATE ON THU. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC WED AND THU. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR W ATLC THU INTO FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW