000 AXNT20 KNHC 110537 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N23W TO 7N24W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 20N56W TO 11N59W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS OBSERVED WITHIN 45 NM OF THE WAVE. THESE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS BARBADOS AND ARE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 7N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N35W TO 4N47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 11W-18W AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 24W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 48W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GULF OVER W LOUISIANA THEN SE TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE NW GULF. AN UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER GEORGIA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SE STATES E OF MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 84W-89W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS W OVER THE E GULF ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF TUE AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WED AND THU SHIFTING N OF THE AREA FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT ARE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER GEORGIA EXTENDS INTO THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA ARE IN THE W ATLC WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N72W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 47W AND 70W WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N49W EXTENDING ALONG 26N56W TO 24N63W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES LEAVING THE E ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT W OVER THE BAHAMAS THROUGH WED AND DISSIPATE ON THU. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT/MON MERGING WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT TUE WEAKENING THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE SE THROUGH WED AND THU. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR W ATLC FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW