000 AXNT20 KNHC 102338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 7N TO 17N...MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AFRICA. A RECENT UPPER-AIR SOUNDING FROM DAKAR SENEGAL INDICATES THAT THE WAVE PASSED THE STATION SOMETIME DURING THE LAST 18 HOURS. ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N56W 15N57W 11N58W. IT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE 27N26W 15N54W-TO- NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE POSITION OF THE WAVE IS NEAR A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N56W 16N58W 11N59W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W AND IT CONTINUES TO 10N18W. THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TROPICAL WAVE BREAKS UP THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 6N25W TO 6N39W...TO 5N47W...INTO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA/NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SURINAME. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES FROM 27N IN THE WATER TO 34N IN GEORGIA BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND 92W IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. MEDIA SOURCES HAVE REPORTED LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ONE POSSIBLE TORNADO IN ALABAMA. ONE AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG 27N BETWEEN LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA GULF COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N73W TO 28N78W 26N86W AND 25N94W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA...BEYOND JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM PANAMA BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N56W 15N57W 11N58W. IT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE 27N26W 15N54W-TO- NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE POSITION OF THE WAVE IS NEAR A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N56W 16N58W 11N59W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG THE PANAMA COAST ALONG 78W...AND THEN BEYOND 10N86W IN COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...IN PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND ITS BORDER WITH COSTA RICA...IN CENTRAL NICARAGUA...AND ALONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL PLAINS OF NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...AND IN EL SALVADOR. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 83W. WATCH OUT FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ALSO IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A 60W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 27N56W AND 25N63W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 25N63W TO 23N74W JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W 28N52W 24N61W 23N72W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N51W 23N74W FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TO THE WEST OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 29N41W 25N48W 23N57W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N26W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N44W 15N54W...AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TRINIDAD FOR THE PERIOD ENDING 10/1200 UTC WAS 1.83 INCHES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...ROUGHLY TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 40W... DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT